FBBVA Lecture 2024: The Uncharted Waters of International Trade
回顾了过去25年国际贸易领域的理论和实证进展，指出了尚未充分探索的研究方向，包括将寡头行为纳入核心模型、跨学科合作以及利用大数据和人工智能重塑贸易政策。
Abstract The field of international trade has undergone significant theoretical and empirical advancements over the last 25 years. A key breakthrough has been the emergence of firm-level approaches to studying exporting, importing, and global value chains. The field has also experienced a quantitative revolution, driven by medium-scale models that rapidly assess the implications of trade cost shocks on real income. Additionally, a branch of the empirical literature has unshackled itself from the discipline of theoretical frameworks and from traditional data sources. Yet, several underexplored areas, or “uncharted waters,” remain in international trade research. I outline new potential areas for theoretical research, including incorporating oligopolistic (strategic) behavior into core models, and fostering greater cross-disciplinary collaboration with other fields in economics and social sciences, such as behavioral economics or political science. I also discuss potential uncharted waters for empirical trade economists, while identifying potential new sources of data and ways in which official trade statistics could be improved. Finally, I explore how big data and artificial intelligence could reshape the design of international trade policy in coming years.