Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field
利用独特的经纪数据集和系列实验，发现人们在风险选择中存在动态不一致：计划采用损失退出策略，但实际行为却提前止盈、追涨杀跌，承诺机制能提高风险接受度。
We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a loss-exit strategy—planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior deviates from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More people accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial strategy. Our results help reconcile seemingly contradictory findings on risk-taking in static versus dynamic contexts. We explore implications for theory and welfare.