The Long-Run Labour Market Effects of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement
利用1984-2004年加拿大纵向行政数据，评估加美自由贸易协定对劳动力市场的长期影响，发现加拿大关税削减带来轻微负面效应，而美国关税削减则有正面效应，工人能较快转向受益行业。
Abstract This article assesses the long-run effects of the 1989 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement on the Canadian labour market using matched longitudinal administrative data for the years 1984–2004. We simultaneously examine the labour market effects of increased export expansion and import competition, generally finding adverse effects of Canadian tariff cuts and favourable effects of U.S. cuts, though both effects are small. Workers initially employed in industries that experienced larger Canadian tariff concessions exhibit a heightened probability of layoffs at large firms, but little impact on long-run cumulative earnings. Lower earnings and years worked at the initial employer are offset by gains in other manufacturing industries, construction, and services. Canadian workers quickly transitioned out of industries facing import competition, with the bilateral nature of the FTA providing import-competing workers employment options in alternative manufacturing industries benefiting from larger U.S. tariff cuts.