Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism
研究了2018-2019年美国提高进口关税如何通过供应链传导导致美国出口下降，发现受影响最大的产品出口降幅相当于2%至4%的关税。
We examine the impacts of the 2018–2019 US import tariff increases on US exports through the lens of supply chain linkages. Using 2016 confidential firm-trade linked data, we identify exporters who were importing products that eventually faced tariff increases to construct product-level exposure to import tariffs. We find that the most exposed products had lower exports in 2018–2019, with the largest effects in 2019. The decline in exports in 2019 is equivalent to an ad valorem tariff on US exports of 2 percent to 4 percent.