Spatial Integration and Agricultural Productivity: Quantifying the Impact of New Roads
结合空间模型与埃塞俄比亚1997-2014年道路扩建数据，量化新道路对农业生产力提升和结构转型的影响，发现道路改善带来显著的结构变化和生产力增长。
I study the effects of Ethiopia's 1997–2014 road expansion program on agricultural productivity and structural change by combining a quantitative spatial sectoral framework with novel district-level panel data on agricultural production and geocoded transport costs. In the model, the spatial heterogeneity of transport costs affects the distribution of production and mobile inputs across locations and sectors, and the allocation of land across crops within locations. Varying transport costs to their new actual levels, the model delivers substantial structural change, a rise in agricultural productivity onetenth of the data, and a pattern of productivity gains across districts consistent with the data.