Empirical selectivity of study programmes in higher education: does it matter for degree completion?
研究了德国大学学习项目的经验选择性（由项目选拔和学生自选形成）对学位完成概率的影响，发现个人能力比项目选择性更重要。
This article investigates the relevance of local selectivity in study programmes for the probability of attaining a first academic degree. Empirical selectivity can be the result of both selection procedures of study programmes and self-selection of potential students. From higher-education research, complemented by prominent arguments from school effectiveness research, various competing hypotheses are derived regarding the impact of individual academic ability and the contextual impact of local selectivity. While all hypotheses expect individual ability to be positively related to degree completion, they differ in expectations about local selectivity. The subsequent empirical analysis expands the existing international state of research by covering not only the institutional level but also fields of study. Using data from an undergraduate cohort of the German National Educational Panel Study, results from two-level linear probability models fit best with the composition hypothesis, which predicts a positive correlation between degree completion and local selectivity that purely reflects the composition of the student body. In contrast to results in the mostly U.S. context of whole universities, own ability seems more important than selectivity of the context in the form of study programmes in German higher education, at least in terms of surrounding peers’ ability.