Ensuring the security of the clean energy transition: Examining the impact of geopolitical risk on the price of critical minerals
使用常系数和时变参数局部投影模型，研究地缘政治风险对铝、铜、镍、铂、锡、锌六种关键矿产价格的影响，发现地缘政治威胁比地缘政治行为的影响更大且更迅速。
We use constant and time-varying parameter local projection (TVP-LP) regression models to examine the effect of geopolitical risk on prices of six critical minerals: aluminium, copper, nickel, platinum, tin and zinc. We propose a conceptual framework in which the responsiveness of prices for critical minerals to geopolitical risk depends on the non-technical risk associated with procuring each critical mineral and geopolitical threats have a bigger effect on critical mineral prices than geopolitical acts. Our results are generally consistent with these predictions. We find considerable evidence that the effect of geopolitical risk on the prices of critical minerals is time varying, with the Gulf War, 9/11 terrorist attacks and COVID-19 pandemic each having a significant effect. We find that shocks due to geopolitical threats are generally bigger in magnitude than geopolitical acts and that prices respond more quickly to geopolitical threats. • The effect of geopolitical risk on prices are examined for six critical minerals. • The responsiveness of prices for critical minerals to geopolitical risk depends on the non-technical risk associated with procuring each critical mineral. • The effect of geopolitical risk on the prices of critical minerals is time varying. • Shocks due to geopolitical threats are generally bigger in magnitude than geopolitical acts.