Inventory decisions under political violence
利用莫桑比克一家跨国饮料供应商431家客户的月度数据，研究发现政治暴力冲突使10公里内的小企业库存采购减少28%-32%，而大企业不受影响，冲突加剧了大小企业间的差距。
We estimate the effect of violent political conflicts on firm inventory purchase decisions using monthly data of 431 clients of a multinational beverage supplier in Mozambique. Firms reduce inventory purchases by up to 19% in response to conflicts occurring within a 10 km radius. This is observed exclusively among small firms, which reduce their purchases by 28%–32% compared to larger firms. Small firms are also more likely to temporarily or permanently halt their purchases. However, conditional on survival, the effect is short-lived. Our results underscore the disproportionate impact of political violence on small firms, potentially widening the gap between small and large businesses in developing economies. • Violent political conflicts affect small firms’ short-term inventory investment. • Small firms are less likely to survive after nearby conflicts occur. • For surviving firms, the impact on inventory investment is temporary. • Large firms have greater resources to cushion the impact of conflict. • Violence widens the gap between small and large firms in developing countries.