Subjective expectations and house prices
利用密歇根大学消费者调查的主观预期数据，对美国房价波动进行方差分解，发现家庭主观收入预期是房价变动的主要驱动因素，而主观贴现率预期影响不显著。
We study U.S. house price movements using a variance decomposition based on subjective expectations data from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers. We find that households’ subjective cash flow (income) expectations account for the dominant share of the overall variation in house prices, whereas subjective discount rate (return) expectations are insignificant. This finding is robust across different samples and subgroups based on home ownership, census regions, income, and age. This contrasts previous evidence from VAR-based models for rational expectations. Households’ ex post forecast errors and ex ante expectational errors are predictable from housing market information and credit conditions.