Investor Perceptions of the Corporate Alternative Minimum Tax
通过事件研究法，考察投资者如何看待美国新设的15%企业最低税对大型公司价值的影响，发现目标公司股价在立法过程中显著下跌约1.4%-1.8%，表明投资者预期企业难以规避该税负。
The Inflation Reduction Act establishes a new 15% corporate minimum tax on the adjusted financial accounting income for large U.S. corporations. Although the minimum tax is estimated to raise $222 billion over 10 years, some fear firms will manipulate their accounting earnings to reduce their tax liabilities, resulting in less revenue raised. Using an event study, we examine the extent to which investors believe this tax will reduce firm value. We examine stock market reactions around key legislative developments leading to the enactment of the book minimum tax. Our findings show targeted firms experience significantly lower stock returns than nontargeted firms during the enactment process (about 1.4%–1.8% of firm value). In aggregate, our findings are consistent with the Joint Committee on Taxation’s revenue estimates. In cross-sectional tests, we fail to find evidence that firms most likely to avoid the tax via earnings management experience more positive returns. We also fail to find less negative returns for firms most likely to pass on the tax to consumers. Overall, our results suggest investors do not expect firms to avoid this tax. Instead, they appear to expect a significant portion of the corporate minimum tax to be remitted by firms and borne by shareholders. This paper was accepted by Ranjani Krishnan, accounting. Funding: F. B. Gaertner acknowledges support from the Cynthia and Jay Ihlenfeld Professorship, M. Pflitsch acknowledges support of a postdoc fellowship of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), S. O. Kelley gratefully acknowledges support from the James L. Henderson Chair, and J. L. Hoopes gratefully acknowledges support from the Harold Q. Langenderfer fellowship. Supplemental Material: The data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.04750 .