Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand Versus Supply
用贝叶斯SVAR模型量化需求和供给因素对美国长期GDP增长放缓的相对重要性，发现2000年后需求因素解释了放缓的一半。
ABSTRACT Long‐run GDP growth has declined in the United States over the past two decades. Two competing views take centre stage in accounting for this slowdown: the demand‐side view and the supply‐side view. I empirically quantify their relative importance in a Bayesian SVAR with common trends identified using sign restrictions. While supply‐side factors were the main driver of long‐run GDP growth prior to 2000, demand‐side factors explain half of its slowdown afterwards. The findings highlight the importance of demand‐side factors as drivers of long‐run growth.