Heterogeneity in Household Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy
利用消费者预期调查数据，研究了不同人口群体家庭通胀预期条件分布的异质性，并分析了货币政策冲击如何影响该分布。发现各群体预期峰值接近美联储2%目标，但群体内和群体间存在显著异质性，紧缩性货币政策使家庭通胀预期整体下降，低收入群体上分位点反应更明显。
Abstract We empirically characterize the heterogeneity in the conditional distribution of household inflation expectations across demographic groups using the Survey of Consumer Expectations and also investigate how monetary policy shocks affect the conditional distribution. We find that, across all the groups, the peak of the group-specific distribution of household inflation expectations aligns closely with the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve, but there is substantial heterogeneity both within and across groups, primarily on the right. However, in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock identified by high-frequency financial market responses, households overall adjust their inflation expectations significantly downwards. In addition, the magnitude of the reaction is more pronounced in the upper quantile of low-income groups whose unconditional inflation expectations are less well anchored.