Abortion ballot measures affect election outcomes
研究发现，2022年美国中期选举中，有堕胎相关公投措施的州的共和党得票率比全国平均低4.8个百分点，表明堕胎公投对选举结果有显著影响。
In the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, Democratic candidates lost fewer than predicted seats and stymied an expected red wave. News coverage and polling data represent this surprise Democratic success as a result of voters’ response to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade . Using county-level vote data, we find that the decrease in Republican vote margin in 2022 can be explained by demographic and economic factors. However, relative to the national average, the Republican vote margin decreased by 4.8 percentage points more in states with abortion-related ballot measures. Our results indicate that abortion ballot measures have effects on election outcomes of a magnitude large enough to determine competitive races.