Supply chain serviceability under climate change with application in the Arctic
本研究提出供应链服务能力概念，评估北极供应链在气候变化下的韧性，基于加拿大北部气候数据，用蒙特卡洛模拟预测三种排放情景下机场和飞机类型的影响，发现服务能力指数平均下降高达51%。
This study evaluates the resilience of Arctic supply chains to climate change by introducing the concept of supply chain serviceability. We define serviceability as a function of vulnerabilities in transportation nodes and modes under disruption threats, focusing on climate change impacts. Using climate data from Northern Canada, we assess serviceability under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-2.6 (low emissions), SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions), and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). We use Monte Carlo simulations to predict climate-induced impacts on six airports and three aircraft types. The detailed analysis of Yellowknife and Iqaluit airports and military aircraft validates our methodology. We include the results for additional airports and aircraft types in the e-companion. Our findings indicate average serviceability index declines of up to 51 permafrost degradation, extreme weather events, and infrastructure vulnerabilities. Our study provides actionable managerial insights and theoretical contributions to support supply chain resilience initiatives. • Serviceability framework to evaluate supply chain resilience under climate change. • Methodology to calculate serviceability index using climate projections. • Arctic Canada case study to illustrate practical implications of the framework. • Insights to guide resilient supply chain strategies and infrastructure planning. • Theoretical and empirical opportunities to extend the proposed framework.