US Monetary Policy and Indeterminacy
通过估计一个允许不确定性的中型模型，发现美国1979年前货币政策被动，而1979年后主动的证据在排除沃尔克反通胀时期或加入时变通胀目标后不再成立。
ABSTRACT In this paper, I investigate the stance of the US monetary policy in the postwar period. To this end, I show that two features are key: a rich structural model and a parameterization of the indeterminate solution that ensures a sufficient exploration of the indeterminacy region during the estimation procedure. Therefore, I estimate a medium‐scale model on the US macroeconomic data using a novel solution method to allow for indeterminacy. The evidence of a passive monetary policy in the pre‐1979 period is pervasive and robust to the use of alternative model specifications and data. By contrast, the evidence of an active stance after 1979 is overturned if the period of the Volcker disinflation is excluded or if the model is estimated including a time‐varying inflation target and data on inflation expectations.