SELF‐FULFILLING BUSINESS CYCLES WITH PRODUCTION NETWORKS
构建包含投入产出关联和信贷约束的多部门经济周期模型，发现生产网络结构决定均衡是否唯一，并定量评估美国2000-2020年数据，揭示2007年前经济易受自我实现波动影响。
Abstract What is the role of production networks in inducing self‐fulfilling business cycles? We construct a multisector business cycle model that features both input–output linkages and credit constraints. Our theoretical framework demonstrates that a single aggregate financial multiplier is sufficient to characterize equilibrium determinacy, which hinges on the network structure. By quantitatively assessing the possibility of indeterminate equilibria in the United States from 2000 to 2020, we discover that the economy was prone to self‐fulfilling fluctuations in the period of pre‐2007.