The impact of “artificial wool” on the New Zealand wool industry: Lessons for future substitution transitions in the agricultural sector
研究1910-1955年间人造纤维（人造丝）对新西兰羊毛产业的冲击，分析产业应对替代威胁的失败原因，并为未来如培养蛋白等替代技术提供启示。
Biotechnology promises a technological solution to the development of sustainable food systems – not by making practices in contemporary agriculture more sustainable, but by completely replacing large sections of the food and fibre value chain. Historical examples illustrate how substitution technologies can be devastating for the agricultural sector (e.g., alizarin and indigotin dyes), but also how they can have vastly differing and complex outcomes (e.g., margarine and vanillin). In arguing for a need for a greater understanding of substitution transitions, we investigate the impact of cellulose-based artificial fibres (rayon) on New Zealand's wool industry between 1910 and 1955. Using a publicly available database of New Zealand newspapers the study constructs the history of events from reports at the time and, importantly, analyses the response of the wool growing industry to the emerging threat of product substitution. We identify price fluctuations in agriculture that favoured artificial fibre production, a failure of the wool industry to appreciate the new industrial attributes of artificial fibres, the structuring effects of surrounding wars, and the presence of narratives of non-response as having significant influences over the substitution. To illustrate the utility of the findings, we draw conclusions concerning how substitutions might develop in the future, focusing on the case of cultivated animal proteins. • Addresses the issue of substitution transitions in agrifood system. • Extensively reviews historical newspaper articles on artificial wool substitution. • Details the challenges faced by New Zealand wool in responding to substitution. • Identifies four key issues concerning agricultural sector response to substitutions. • Suggests implications for possible future cultivated protein substitution.