The political effects of (mis)perceived immigration
利用意大利地方选举数据，研究发现选举前潜在的海上移民抵达会降低投票率、增加抗议票，并推动选票转向极右翼政党，而社交媒体在选举期间放大了移民议题的显著性。
Abstract Several studies document that exposure to actual immigration affects political outcomes. This article examines, instead, the influence of expected immigration, using data from local elections in Italy. We develop an index of potential exposure to pre-electoral sea arrivals, which varies over time and space depending on immigrants’ nationality. We find that such potential exposure causes a decrease in turnout and an increase in protest votes, shifting valid votes toward extreme-right parties. Support for populist and anti-immigration parties increased in highly exposed municipalities, where voters believed that the new inflow of refugees would increase the local stock of immigrants. However, Twitter data show that these expectations do not reflect actual immigration trends; immigration salience rises mainly during the election period, while most arrivals occur months later. This suggests that, around elections, informal media can bias people’s expectations and, consequently, influence voting behavior.