The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
研究发现，美国国债收益率的长期下降几乎全部发生在美联储会议前后的狭窄窗口期内，表明美联储的沟通和行动对长期利率有重要影响。
Abstract This paper documents a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings captures the entire secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields. Yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the forces behind the secular decline are thought to be independent of monetary policy. Long-term bond yields decline when the Fed cuts the short rate and when the Fed lowers its long-run forecast of the federal funds rate (the “dot plot”). These results are consistent with the view that Fed announcements provide guidance about the long-run path of interest rates.