The Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Rate Shocks
研究自然利率下降对产出和通胀的影响，发现其降低趋势产出并在短期造成紧缩，零利率下限时符合长期停滞假说，但零利率下限外也压低产出趋势，需更一般理论。
Abstract This paper studies the effects of natural rate shocks on output and inflation. It estimates a semi-structural model inspired by the DSGE literature. A decline in the natural rate is found to lower trend output and to be contractionary and deflationary in the short run. When the economy is constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB), these results are consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis. However, negative natural rate shocks are found to depress the trend of output even outside of the ZLB, calling for a more general theory. A model with liquidity scarcity is proposed as a first step.