Trade Integration and Supply Disruptions: Sharing the Pain From a Russian Gas Shut-off to Europe
研究了贸易一体化如何影响供应冲击的经济传导，以俄罗斯对欧盟断气为例，发现全球液化天然气市场一体化使欧盟经济损失缩小五倍，但其他进口国也受价格冲击，总体损失仍小于无一体化情形。
How does market size—which increases with greater trade integration—affect the economic propagation of supply shocks? We examine this question through the case of a Russian gas shut-off to the European Union (EU). An open-economy, multi-sector general equilibrium model suggests that the adverse economic impact on the EU shrinks five-fold if trade integration with the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is considered. Greater international integration provides a buffer for the EU through trade. The flip side of integration is that other LNG importers around the world see adverse effects from higher prices. Still, the overall, combined economic damage for the EU and other LNG importers with integration is less than half of that in the counterfactual case without. Fostering more trade integration can help make economies more resilient to supply shocks.