On Bankruptcy Indicators From Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts
研究了分析师盈利预测的四个特征（预测水平、误差、偏差和离散度）作为破产预警指标的有效性，发现这些指标在预测破产方面与传统会计比率方法同样准确。
Research has documented that forecasts of future earnings made by financial analysts capture aspects of risk and expected return for firms, and reflect information not reflected in firms’ accounting reports. This study investigates the usefulness of measures developed from analysts’ earnings forecasts as indicators of impending bankruptcy. Results indicate that healthy and failing firms differ significantly with respect to four properties of earnings forecasts: forecast level, forecast error, forecast bias, and forecast dispersion. When combined in a model, measures related to these four forecast properties are able to predict bankruptcy in the year prior to failure as accurately as more traditional approaches using accounting ratios.