Assessing the impact of EU policies on recycling supply chain: a system dynamics perspective on advancing packaging recycling capacity
本研究构建系统动力学模型，评估创新导向、补贴导向和市场导向三类欧盟政策对提升国内回收能力的效果，发现创新政策长期最优，市场政策应急有效，并给出84%资源投入创新、16%投入市场的最优组合。
Abstract Recycling stands as a crucial strategy in mitigating climate change and advancing towards carbon neutrality. Within the European Union (EU), the development of a resilient recycling supply chain is of paramount importance, particularly in response to global disruptions such as the widespread ban on solid waste imports by numerous countries like China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Such disruptions have exposed the vulnerabilities of EU member states, notably their overreliance on waste export and limited domestic recycling capacities. This study integrates primary data from diverse public sources into a system dynamics simulation model to assess the effectiveness of three policy types used to enhance EU domestic recycling capacities: Innovation-focused (IF), Subsidy-focused, and Market-based (MB) policies. Our findings show that IF policies exert the most considerable impact in the short term and continue to play a crucial role in the EU’s recycling capacity expansion over the medium and long term. Conversely, MB policies are identified as most effective for immediate capacity enhancement in response to abrupt disruptions. Finally, the result suggests the optimal policy mix where 84% government resources should be allocated to IF policies and 16% to MB policies to ensure the EU achieves the deliberate balance between short-term market stabilisation and long-term transformation of its domestic recycling capacity for economic, environmental, and social sustainability. This research represents a pioneering effort in examining the efficacy of a diverse array of policy types within an optimised mix, thereby encompassing a broader range of policy considerations.