Framing effects in consumer expectations surveys
通过随机实验，研究问题措辞和格式如何影响消费者对通胀预期的回答，发现简单措辞和宽松格式会提高平均预期通胀率，而要求给出最低、最高和最可能值则降低不确定性。
In a randomized survey experiment, I test how variations in question wording and format influence response behavior. Participants from a representative sample in Germany are divided into four groups, each receiving a different version of a question about expected inflation over the next 12 months. I compare two wordings used in leading consumer surveys: (i) the change in prices in general and (ii) the inflation rate. Additionally, I examine responses to a question about probabilistic beliefs regarding future inflation and a simpler one asking for the expected minimum, maximum, and most likely inflation rate. The findings show that response behavior varies significantly with framing. Simpler wording like ‘prices in general’ and less restrictive format produce higher mean expected inflation. While simpler wording leads to higher individual uncertainty, asking for the minimum, maximum, and mode yields lower uncertainty. The results suggest that framing in consumer expectations surveys can shape the elicited data, underscoring the importance of careful question design. • Response behavior in consumer surveys can be strongly influenced by framing. • This study demonstrates these effects using a randomized control trial embedded in a survey. • Simpler wording is shown to yield higher expected inflation and uncertainty. • Asking for minimum, maximum and mode alleviates shortcomings of the probabilistic format.