Rethinking the Informal Economy and the Hugo Effect
基于欧盟增值税数据提出新方法EVADE衡量非正规经济规模，发现其随经济周期反向变动，即衰退时增长、繁荣时下降，称为“雨果效应”。
Abstract This paper offers a new approach to measuring the size of the informal economy based on VAT data for the European Union. Although data intensive, our evading value added duty economy (EVADE) measure is simpler and more transparent than existing measures. EVADE also shows more variation across countries of Europe than earlier measures, including higher informality in Greece, Italy, and Spain, for example. Moreover, we find considerably higher variation within countries across time; in a cross-country time series regression, controlling for tax rates, we confirm that the informal economy grows significantly in recessions and decreases in booms, which we term the “Hugo effect”.