Exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences
利用153个国家1993-2019年数据，发现联合国安理会当选临时成员获得IMF贷款后12个月汇率对美元升值约2%，亚行贷款后4个月升值约0.25%，且与中国地缘距离越大效应越强。
This research provides novel empirical evidence about the exchange rate reaction to international organization loans and geopolitical preferences using an unbalanced panel of 153 countries observed from February 1993 to December 2019. For elected temporary members of the UN Security Council, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans cause a sizeable appreciation in the exchange rate vis-à-vis the USD of around 2 percent at the 12-month horizon, after controlling for institutional quality. Asian Development Bank (ADB) loans cause an appreciation of around 0.25 percent at the 4-month horizon. These effects are stronger when the geopolitical distance with China is higher, indicating a higher credibility for these loans. • We estimate the exchange reaction to international organization loans. • IMF loans cause a sizeable appreciation of around 2 percent at the 12-month horizon. • ADB loans cause an appreciation of around 0.25 percent at the 4-month horizon. • Loans are more credible, when geopolitical distance to China is higher.