Examining the relationship between perceived bikeability, cycling preferences and cycling distance
利用荷兰面板数据，分析感知骑行友好性、骑行偏好与骑行距离之间的因果关系，发现感知骑行友好性和骑行距离能分别促进下一年的骑行距离和偏好，对交通规划和健康促进有参考价值。
Understanding cycling behaviour is crucial for transport sustainability and individual health. Existing research has primarily focused on objectively measured bikeability using cross-sectional data, which are unable to assess within-person effects over time. Using longitudinal data from the Netherlands Mobility Panel, this paper applies a Cross-Lagged Panel Model and a Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model to analyse the causal relationship between perceived bikeability, cycling preferences and cycling distance. The results show that individuals’ cycling preferences and distance are relatively stable over time with positive autoregressive effects. Higher perceived bikeability and cycling distance directly encourage individual cycling distances and preferences separately in the subsequent year, with cross-lagged effects. For between-person effects, people with higher perceived bikeability generally have stronger cycling preferences and cycle longer distances. The Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model provides a superior model fit to separate within-person from between-person effects. These findings are valuable for promoting cycling.