Quantifying speculative-bubble effects in major European soccer leagues
将超指数理性泡沫理论应用于足球转会数据，通过建模转会支出占电视收入的比例，发现英格兰、法国、德国和意大利联赛存在显著的泡沫效应，并预测了明星球员与普通球员市场差异等流动性不足迹象。
We apply the theory of super-exponential rational bubbles to football transfer data. Refining previous qualitative approaches we model the aggregate transfer spend as a fraction of the TV income. Evidence of substantial bubble effects is found across the English, French, German and Italian leagues. This suggests long-term reductions in transfer spending relative to TV receipts. Our model predicts the existence of other signs of soccer bubbles beyond over-pricing. These include differences in the market for star players and the market for regular players and other signs of illiquidity. • We apply the theory of super-exponential bubbles to football transfer data. • We improve upon previously largely qualitative approaches. • We model aggregate transfer spend as a fraction of the TV income. • Bubble effects are found in England, France, Germany and Italy. • Theory predicts the existence of other forms of illiquidity in soccer markets.