Trade frictions and domestic food price stability in the presence of large‐scale climate shocks
研究贸易摩擦如何加剧气候冲击导致的粮食价格飙升，发现消除边境摩擦或多元化进口来源能降低价格波动，且进口量比贸易伙伴位置更重要。
Abstract This article examines how trade policies can mitigate the impact of trade frictions that worsen food price spikes when supply shocks are correlated across trading partners. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) offers a natural experiment of a global climate phenomenon that induces weather correlation across continents. Gravity‐derived maize prices in southern and eastern Africa increase significantly in response to El Niño extremes. Eliminating border friction reduces self‐sufficiency and the magnitude of El Niño‐driven price increases. Either border elimination or diversification of import sources result in lower and less volatile prices regardless of El Niño occurrences. The results highlight that the ability of trade to alleviate price spikes in the focus regions depends much more on the volume of imports than on the location of trading partners.