The Effects of Italy’s Unification on Its Dual Development: A Synthetic Control Approach
本文用合成控制法分析意大利统一（1861年）后50年对南部和中部-北部在农业占比、识字率和铁路密度上的因果影响，发现统一并未带来普遍好处，反而延缓了工业化。
Abstract There is a long-standing debate on the effect of Italian unification (1861) on the country’s dual development. We estimate the causal impact of unification on agricultural share, literacy and railway density for the South and the Centre-North by analyzing a newly assembled panel of countries/regions with the synthetic control method. Our findings suggest that over the 50 years following the birth of the unified state, neither area drew generalized benefits from unification. Consolidation delayed industrialization in both macro areas. However, the South benefited from a strong spread of rail infrastructure, while the Centre-North enjoyed a pronounced increase in literacy.