Consumption Commitments and Housing Dynamics
研究发现，住房价格与长期经济增长前景正相关，但住房估值对增长前景的冲击反应为负；住房消费在经济前景好时扩张快于前景差时收缩，这一不对称性可通过包含不可分离承诺性住房消费的资产定价模型解释。
Using a measure of local long-run growth prospects, I uncover a novel link between economic fundamentals and house prices. Whereas excess housing returns are positively associated with economic growth prospects, housing valuations are negatively associated with shocks to growth prospects. I document an explanation in metro-area consumption: housing consumption is asymmetrically exposed to economic prospects in that it expands more quickly when prospects are strong than it contracts when prospects are poor. I explain these findings through the lens of an asset pricing model that focuses on a trade-off between nonseparable committed housing and nonhousing consumption. This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance. Supplemental Material: Data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01996 .