Consumer confidence as a mediator between dividend announcements and stock returns
研究了1990至2021年英国FTSE 350公司中，消费者信心如何中介股利公告对股票回报的影响，发现消费者信心高时股利增加带来正回报，低时股利减少导致负回报。
Abstract In this study, we examine the potential influence of consumer confidence on the association between announcing dividend payments and stock returns. We used FTSE 350 spanning the period from 1990 to 2021, using the UK consumer confidence index as a proxy for investor sentiment. The primary empirical test focused on cumulative abnormal returns [− 1, + 1], supplemented by a robustness test spanning [− 10, + 10]. Additionally, a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation was conducted using CAR [− 1, + 1]. Our analysis revealed: under positive consumer confidence, firms announcing dividend increases experienced a positive market response, while under negative consumer confidence, firms announcing dividend decreases elicited a negative market reaction. This study contributes valuable insights to the discourse on investor sentiment and its impact on stock market dynamics.