欧洲电力系统资产的可用性:我们从数据中学到了什么?

Availability of the European power system assets: What we learn from data?

Reliability Engineering and System Safety · 2025
被引 8
ABS 3

中文导读

利用ENTSO-E透明度平台的公开数据,通过马尔可夫过程计算欧洲发电和输电资产的稳态可用性,发现交流线路可用性高于直流线路,且发电机可用性因技术和位置而异。

Abstract

The electric power system in Europe is undergoing rapid transformation due to the integration of intermittent and distributed energy sources. This change impacts system operations and the utilization of the system assets. Therefore, there is a growing need to assess the security of electricity supply. In Europe, however, conducting thorough analyses is hindered by the absence of failure data for generation and transmission assets. To overcome this limitation, we use generator and transmission unavailability data from the ENTSO-E transparency platform and quantify plant-specific availabilities of the European power system key assets. In particular, we apply Markov processes and compute the steady-state probabilities of generators, internal lines, interconnectors, transformers, and substations from transition rates estimated for outage events. We found that within the European power system, internal power lines fail and need maintenance less frequently than interconnectors with neighboring power systems. Our analyses also demonstrate that power transformers have higher availability compared to internal lines and interconnectors. We observe that alternate-current interconnectors exhibit notably higher availability than direct-current interconnectors. Additionally, our findings indicate variations in generator availability depending on the generator technology ( e.g ., fossil, nuclear, hydro, PV, wind). Remarkably, generator failure and repair rates differ based on location. This paper enables further power system security assessments by computing availability parameters ( i.e ., failure rates, steady-state probabilities) for European generators and transmission grid assets. • We analyze generator and transmission asset availability in the European power grid. • We use public data to compute the transition statistics of European grid assets. • Markov processes is utilized to compute the steady-state probabilities of the assets. • AC power lines exhibit notably higher availability than DC lines. • The availability of generators depends on their technology and location.

电力系统可靠性工程能源经济风险分析