Buying Risky Growth and an Explanation for Returns to Trading on P/E
提出一种在考虑成长风险的前提下购买成长股的方法,通过识别价值增长的合理价格,检验市场对成长股的定价是否恰当,并解释市盈率交易回报的风险来源。
Fundamental investors warn about buying growth because growth is risky. This article lays out an approach for buying growth with the warning in mind. It first identifies the value-adding growth for which an investor should pay and then a scheme for identifying how much the market is asking the investor to pay for that growth. That is the price to be challenged: Is the market pricing growth appropriately? The article brings a fundamental analysis to answer that question. With some exceptions, the answer is yes: The market typically discounts expected growth for risk appropriately. The findings come with a caution about buying P/E where value investors see returns. Buying P/E is risky, and the article provides an explanation: P/E ratios imbed expected earnings growth but also the risk to growth. They are discounted for that risk so returns to buying P/E are typically returns to risk.