Pandemic, Ukraine, OPEC+ and strategic stockpiles: Taming the oil market in turbulent times
研究用分解法估算2010年以来全球石油需求和非OPEC+供给的月度变化，发现OPEC+在2017-2024年间试图将油价稳定在远低于市场观察者评估的水平，且其行动在疫情和乌克兰战争期间显著降低了价格波动，同时消费国的战略储备释放也贡献了至少20%的波动降低。
With a simple decomposition method, we estimate the monthly shifts in global oil demand and non-OPEC+ supply that have occurred since 2010. We find evidence that during the Jan 2017- Sep 2024 period OPEC+ attempted to stabilize the price of crude oil much below the values assessed by market observers. Using a structural model of OPEC+’s behavior, we find that judgmental errors regarding the size of market shocks that OPEC+ attempted to offset significantly increased after the start of the Pandemic due to the unprecedented nature and size of those shocks. Despite this, without OPEC+’s actions the price volatility would have been much higher than actual, nearly doubled during the Pre-Pandemic period (Jan 2017-Feb 2020), and higher by 86 % during the Pandemic (May 2020 – Jan 2022) and by 50 % during the Ukraine War (Feb 2022 – Sept 2024). Our results provide evidence that actions taken by consuming countries during the Ukraine War, such as coordinated releases from national stockpiles of crude oil, contributed to reduce price volatility by at least 20 % (2.4 percentage points), a factor that OPEC+ appears to have factored into its production plans. • We plot monthly shifts in oil demand vs supply using an innovative decomposition. • Since 2017 OPEC+ has tried to stabilize the price much below analysts' estimates. • Correlation between estimated Call on OPEC+ and actual output is 82 % since 2017. • OPEC+’s actions reduced price volatility by 45 % during the Pandemic & Ukraine War. • Consuming nations' actions cut price volatility by at least 20 % during the War.