On the trade effects of GATT/WTO membership: They are positive and large after all
通过构建包含国内贸易的引力模型，利用1980-2016年186国数据，发现加入GATT/WTO使成员国间贸易增加140%，成员国与非成员国间贸易增加72%。
Abstract The existing empirical literature on impact of GATT/WTO membership on international trade is mixed. This paper contributes to solving the puzzle of “the missing GATT/WTO effects” by adhering closely to the theoretical foundations of the gravity model of trade. Capitalizing on the latest developments in the empirical trade literature and building a new and large data set covering 186 countries over the period 1980–2016, we estimate a theory‐consistent gravity equation, which includes intra‐national in addition to international trade flows. We find that joining GATT/WTO increased partial equilibrium trade between members by 140%. Our methods also deliver novel estimates of the impact of GATT/WTO on trade between members and non‐member countries, indicating an increase of 72%.