Are insurance prices always forward looking? Evidence from the 2011 catastrophic tornadoes
研究2011年阿拉巴马和密苏里龙卷风后保险公司的定价策略，发现遭受重大损失的公司后续提价幅度明显高于同区域类似风险但无重大损失的公司，这与前瞻性定价机制相矛盾。
Abstract This study investigates the post‐catastrophe pricing strategies of insurance companies, focusing on the aftermath of the 2011 tornadoes in Alabama and Missouri. We analyze the influence of substantial losses incurred during these events on insurance premiums and rate filings in the subsequent years. Our results show that companies that incurred significant losses raised premiums more substantially in the years following the events than firms operating in the same area and facing similar risks but without major losses. This contradicts the forward‐looking insurance pricing mechanism. We also find that these insurers did not report higher indicated rate changes in subsequent filings, but they did submit larger requested rate increases, and they did not receive more favorable regulatory approval outcomes. Furthermore, they managed their pricing and underwriting carefully to maintain a stable state market shares and state to nation market ratios.