Developing a resilient project portfolio optimization model: a tool for an automotive part manufacturer against uncertainties
提出贝叶斯网络模型评估项目弹性，并构建非线性多目标模型优化项目组合选择，以最小化成本、最大化收益、弹性和战略一致性，通过伊朗汽车零部件制造商案例验证。
For a projectified organization to be resilient, it must develop a resilient project portfolio. However, limited research has focused on resilience in project portfolios, particularly from a quantitative perspective. This paper proposes a Bayesian Network (BN) model to assess project resilience according to three key project capacities, namely absorptive, adaptive, and restorative capacities. To facilitate the selection of a resilient project portfolio, a nonlinear multi-objective model is developed considering interdependencies between projects in a portfolio. The model aims to minimize portfolio cost and maximize portfolio revenue, the magnitude of the portfolio resilience, and the alignment with organization strategies. A real-world Project Portfolio Selection (PPS) case from one of Iran’s largest automotive parts manufacturers is adopted and solved. The findings offer valuable insights for managers in optimizing project selection and enhancing portfolio resilience. Finally, a comparative analysis with NSGA-ІІ and a sensitivity analysis are conducted.