Individual Experience and Home Price Expectations
结合荷兰家庭调查和行政数据，研究发现家庭对房价变化的预期会因个人经历的不同而存在差异，这种差异与经历的信息含量、时效性及家庭成熟度有关，并可能影响家庭行为。
Abstract We examine whether the heterogeneity of expectations is associated with idiosyncratic variations in experience. Combining household survey data and administrative data from the Netherlands, we find that given market development, households’ expectations about house price changes vary with their individual experience. This association is related to the use of information conveyed by experience, which varies in terms of informativeness, recency, and household sophistication. Finally, we find that individual experience also explains how far house price expectations deviate from realized house prices and that it may affect household behavior. Our findings elucidate the role that individual experience plays in expectation formation.