A Farewell to Arms: The Peace Dividend of Costa Rica’s Army Abolition
用合成控制法估算哥斯达黎加1949年内战结束和废除军队后的和平红利，发现1950-2010年间人均GDP增速从1.46%提升至2.28%，并分析了基础设施、教育、医疗投资及政治改革等机制。
This paper estimates Costa Rica’s peace dividend following the end of the civil war and the army’s abolition in 1949 with synthetic control. We find that the country’s average per capita GDP growth increased from 1.46% to 2.28% between 1950-2010, relative to a counterfactual Costa Rica that did not take this path. Three main mechanisms are offered to explain these results: After the end of the civil war and the proscription of the military, the country decided to invest substantially in infrastructure, education, and health, which drove economic development. Second, the new constitution reduced power concentration by the executive branch and increased its accountability. Third, the military’s proscription guaranteed the survival and the long-run success of these political and socio-economic reforms.