Decision Under Uncertainty: State of the Science
综述了不确定性下决策的期望效用最大化理论及其替代理论,指出该理论常被违背甚至作为规范标准受到质疑,并提出了经济学家在建模时应思考的问题。
Expected utility maximization is the dominant theory for decision making under uncertainty. Over the past decades evidence has been accumulated, indicating that the theory is often violated and sometimes even questioned as a normative standard. Alternative theories have been proposed for choices with known and unknown probabilities. These theories, in turn, have also been challenged by more recent evidence. This review attempts to provide an overview of the field, highlighting some questions that economists should pose when modeling choice under uncertainty.