How Optimal was U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound?
利用利率期权和通胀补偿数据，估计零下限对2008-2019年美国长期通胀预期的影响，发现拖累仅约10个基点，美联储的前瞻指引和资产购买基本抵消了通缩效应。
Abstract In theory, the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates can generate substantial downward pressure on longer-term inflation expectations. We use data on interest rate options and inflation compensation to estimate the degree to which the probability that the zero lower bound binds in the future has weighed on inflation expectations in the United States. Over the 2008–2019 period, we estimate that the zero lower bound imparted only a small drag on longer-term inflation expectations of around 10 basis points. We argue that the Federal Reserve’s use of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases largely offset the potential disinflationary effects of the zero lower bound, even prior to formally adopting an average inflation targeting framework.