Port resilience to climate change in the Greater Bay Area
提出一个结合目标导向贝叶斯网络和期望最大化方法的框架，评估港口对气候变化的多维韧性，并以大湾区为例发现港口系统在典型情景下韧性较强，可通过提高利用率和实施恢复措施进一步增强。
As vital global supply chain nodes, ports are particularly vulnerable to risks caused by disruptions from climate-induced risks, e.g., extreme weather events, sea-level rise. Through incorporating the Objective Oriented Bayesian Network and Expectation Maximization approach, this paper develops a new framework which enables the assessment of port resilience to climate change across multiple dimensions. Taking the Greater Bay Area as an example, it is found that port systems are quite resilient under typical scenario, and the resilience could be enhanced with higher utilization rate and the implementation of recovery or adaptive measures with faster relative recovery speed. Key measures in improving the resilience of port systems from different perspectives are identified, including the advanced equipment, maintenance and reliability, and technology restoration in the future. Practically, such findings contribute to a deeper understanding of port resilience and offer industry practitioners and policymakers valuable implications to enhance sustainable and resilient port management.