The Impact of Agroecological Transition on the Meat Industry: An Agent‐Based Modelling Approach Applied to the French Livestock Sector
研究通过主体模型模拟法国农业生态转型（减少牲畜数量、重新布局养殖区）对肉类加工业的影响，发现大型加工商因运输成本上升而利润下降甚至倒闭，中小企业则进入新市场，但就业损失难以弥补。
ABSTRACT Scenarios examining the spread of agroecological transition in Europe concur that reducing livestock numbers and improving the synergies between crop and livestock areas are fundamental to curbing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing farmland biodiversity. This study employs an agent‐based model to investigate the influence of a significant agroecological transition in France, which would entail a reduction in production and relocation of livestock to regions outside western France. The objective is to ascertain the impact of such a transition on the competitive dynamics within the meat industry. The large meat processors in western France, which currently dominate the market, would only process a small fraction of the livestock that would be relocated, due to higher transport costs. Their reduced market volume and share would lead to reduced profits for these processors, with some potentially going out of business because of high fixed costs. Driven by economic opportunities, small and medium‐sized processors would enter the market and locate in northern, eastern and southern France. In all scenarios, increased production by small labour‐intensive firms does not offset the impact of reduced production on job losses.