The Dynamics of Large Inflation Surges
研究了近三十年全球大规模通胀飙升的四个典型事实：通胀持续性强、预期逐步追赶、长期预期持续上升、政策反应存在“紧缩恐惧”。
Abstract We empirically characterize episodes of large inflation surges observed worldwide in the last three decades. We document four facts. (1) Inflation surges tend to be persistent, with the duration of disinflation exceeding that of the initial inflation increase. (2) Surges are initially unexpected but followed by a gradual catch-up of average short-term expectations with realized inflation. (3) Long-term inflation expectations tend to exhibit increases that persist throughout disinflation. (4) Policy responses are characterized by hikes in nominal interest rates but no tightening of real rates or fiscal balances, departing from textbook policy rules, and instead exhibiting a “fear of tightening.”