通胀素养、通胀预期与央行信任:一项调查实验

Inflation Literacy, Inflation Expectations, and Trust in the Central Bank: A Survey Experiment

Review of Economics and Statistics · 2025
被引 5 · 同刊同年前 7%
人大 AFT50ABS 4

中文导读

通过两阶段随机对照实验,发现通胀素养信息能提升通胀知识、预测意愿和央行信任,且与定量信息共同影响预期不确定性和信任。

Abstract

Abstract This paper explores the causal effects of inflation literacy using a two-step randomized controlled trial. The first step shows that qualitative information about inflation and monetary policy (Literacy treatment) enhances knowledge about these issues and raises both the likelihood of providing inflation predictions and trust in the central bank. The second step tests the joint impact of the Literacy treatment and further quantitative treatments. While the level of posterior expectations is affected only by quantitative information, inflation forecast uncertainty and trust react to both qualitative and quantitative information. Moreover, different information types may interact when impacting forecast uncertainty and trust.

通胀素养通胀预期央行信任调查实验