The intermittent Phillips curve: Finding a stable (but persistence‐dependent) Phillips curve model specification
研究发现通胀对失业缺口的不同持续性波动反应不同，这种依赖持续性的关系与商业周期阶段一致，解决了文献中多个“通胀谜题”，模型系数稳定且预测准确。
Abstract We make substantial progress on understanding the Phillips curve, yielding important monetary policy implications. Inflation responds differently to persistent versus moderately persistent (or transient) fluctuations in the unemployment gap. This persistence‐dependent relationship aligns with business‐cycle stages, and is consistent with existing theory. Previous work fails to model this dependence, thereby finding the numerous “inflation puzzles”—for example, missing inflation/disinflation—noted in the literature. Our specification eliminates these puzzles; for example, the Phillips curve has not weakened; inflation's post‐2012 slow upward trudge was predictable. The model's coefficients are stable, and it provides accurate out‐of‐sample conditional recursive forecasts through the Great Recession and recovery.