Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts
开发模型，利用专业预测者调查的点预测，估计任意预测期的一致预期和不确定性，生成覆盖可靠的扇形图，对经济预测者和政策制定者有用。
Abstract We develop models that take point forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) as inputs and produce estimates of survey-consistent term structures of expectations and uncertainty at arbitrary forecast horizons. Our models combine fixed-horizon and fixed-event forecasts, accommodating time-varying horizons and availability of survey data, as well as potential inefficiencies in survey forecasts. The estimated term structures of SPF-consistent expectations are comparable in quality to the published, widely used short-horizon forecasts. Our estimates of time-varying forecast uncertainty reflect historical variations in realized errors of SPF point forecasts, and generate fan charts with reliable coverage rates.