Recessions, Recoveries, and Leverage
研究发现，低杠杆时衰退后经济可能回到原有增长路径（U型），高杠杆时则可能低于原有路径（L型），战后杠杆上升使近期衰退更可能呈L型，美国大衰退即为L型。
ABSTRACT When leverage is low, recoveries from recessions are likely to eventually return the economy to its pre‐recession growth path. When leverage is high, recoveries are likely to leave the economy below its pre‐recession growth path. In other words, low‐leverage recessions are likely to be U‐shaped, whereas high‐leverage recessions are likely to be L‐shaped. The increase in leverage over the postwar period indicates that recent recessions are much more likely to be L‐shaped. In particular, there is strong evidence that the Great Recession in the U.S. was L‐shaped. We also find similar effects of leverage for several other countries, but not all.