US-China tensions, global supply chains pressure, and global economy
使用SVAR模型研究中美政治紧张、全球供应链压力与全球经济状况之间的因果关系，发现两者相互加剧，且对全球经济的影响因衡量指标而异。
Using a SVAR model, I examine the causal relationship between Sino-US political tensions, global supply chains pressure and global economic conditions. The impacts of structural US-China political tensions and global supply chains pressure shocks vary across different proxies of global economic conditions. It is recommended to use multiple variables to measure global economic activity for robustness checks. • US-China tensions intensify pressure on global supply chains. • Rising global supply chain pressure exacerbates US-China rivalries. • Demand shocks have little impact on US-China tensions and global supply chain pressure. • Sino-US tensions affect global economic activity differently by measurement. • Using multiple measures of global economic activity is advised for robustness checks.